In 2016, Trump surprised most of the pollsters by winning the White House with 306 electoral votes. He won everywhere he needed to and also won the historically blue states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Only a few pollsters got this right, and statespoll.com was one of them.
Just a few days before the election, they are putting out their 2020 electoral map based on all the predictions:
Wow, that’s quite a red map, and he thinks Trump will win a big victory, taking nearly all the swing states he’s been fighting for. 322 electoral votes for Trump, versus 216 for Biden?
That kind of number would put a lot of mainstream pollsters out of business if it comes true!
Now, this guy is digging into each of the serious polls and adjusting them based on his research and the tendency to oversample Democrats.
When he adjusts them, it’s giving Trump an even bigger victory than last time. In 2016 this pollster got everything right except Wisconsin, which was an extremely close race decided by less than 23,000 votes, or less than 1%.
Now, the mainstream media is insisting they learned their lessons from 2016, putting in place more swing state polling than last time around. And Biden is actually visiting these swing states, unlike Hillary Clinton who all but ignored them and got too confident.
But it doesn’t matter how many polls you have if they are wrong. And StatesPoll is guessing that they did it again this time: they were overly confident Democrats would vote, and they undercounted the shy Trump voter.
So who are you more likely to trust – a pollster who predicted almost every state correctly, or the mainstream media polls who were pretty wrong last time on the states that counted?
Do you think Trump will win reelection?
- One of the few pollsters that got it right in 2016 is predicting another Trump electoral college victory of 322-216.
- Mainstream media polls still give Biden a large edge going into election day in the national polls and in key swing states.
Source: States Poll